Sabalenka faces rival Rybakina in blockbuster US Open final with three-peat in sight

Sabalenka vs Rybakina - 22:00 CET

Match news and form

Aryna Sabalenka achieved a historic milestone after defeating Jessica Pegula at the US Open for the third year in a row, thereby entering the final of this tournament for the fourth consecutive year. The top seed set aside the American, 7-5, 6-2, in an hour and 20 minutes to extend her title defence.

Apart from needing a deciding-set tiebreak against Linda Noskova, Sabalenka has won all other rounds in straight sets. She extends her winning streak at the US Open to 19 matches and has become the first player in the Open Era to reach eight consecutive hard-court Grand Slam finals.

Sabalenka has been absolutely vicious on hard courts for years. This season alone she has become champion in Brisbane, Indian Wells, and Miami, in addition to a runner-up finish to none other than Rybakina at the Australian Open.

Elena Rybakina advanced to her second Grand Slam final of the season after rallying from a set down in front of a packed Arthur Ashe Stadium to defeat former champion Coco Gauff, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. It was her second comeback win over Gauff in less than a month, having also prevailed in Toronto.

Rybakina had rarely succeeded at the US Open relative to her standards and had never reached its second week until last year, when she settled for a fourth-round finish. This fortnight she set aside her past in New York after removing the likes of Naomi Osaka and Qinwen Zheng.

Rybakina has been equally impressive on hard courts as Sabalenka. In addition to winning her second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, she went on to reach the finals in Indian Wells and Toronto. Following this fortnight's performance, she is now set to become the new World No. 1.

Head-to-head

Sabalenka leads 10-7. The pair have met six times in various finals, with Rybakina winning four of those, including at the 2025 WTA Finals and the 2026 Australian Open. This will be their fourth encounter of the 2026 season. Sabalenka avenged her Australian Open final loss with victories in Indian Wells and Miami.

Stats & facts

Sabalenka holds a 4-4 record in Grand Slam finals and 1-3 in her last four.

Sabalenka has a losing 8-14 career record against opponents ranked No. 1 or No. 2.

Rybakina has won two of three Grand Slam finals to date, prevailing at Wimbledon in 2022 and the Australian Open in 2026.

Rybakina seeks to become only the third woman in the last two decades to win both hard-court majors in a single year.

Betting analysis

There could be no better line-up for the US Open final than a clash between the outgoing World No. 1 and the incoming World No. 1. Needless to say, there is little to separate the pair going into the championship match, except the ever-likely prospect of a deciding set.

Sabalenka in 2026

Best results: Miami, Indian Wells, Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Miami, Indian Wells, Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)

Record: 46-8

Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2

Record on outdoor hard courts: 33-3

Record against top-10 players: 7-2 (career 62-44)

Record in Grand Slam finals: 0-1 (career 4-4)

Record in finals: 3-1 (career 24-20)

Grand Slams: Australian Open (final), French Open (quarter-finals), Wimbledon (round of 16)

Sabalenka at the US Open

Career record: 40-6

Best result: title (2024-25)

Last year's result: title

Record in finals: 2-1

Preparation: Toronto (round of 16), Cincinnati (round of 16)

Road to the final: Osorio (6-2, 6-4), Iatcenko (6-1, 6-1), Rakhimova (6-3, 6-4), Townsend (6-4, 6-3), (6) Noskova (7-6, 3-6, 7-6), (3) Pegula (7-5, 6-2)

Rybakina in 2026

Best results: Stuttgart, Australian Open (title); Toronto, Indian Wells (final)

Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (title); Toronto, Indian Wells (final)

Record: 48-13

Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1

Record on outdoor hard courts: 35-7

Record against top-10 players: 9-5 (career 40-32)

Record in Grand Slam finals: 1-0 (career 2-1)

Record in finals: 2-2 (career 13-13)

Grand Slams: Australian Open (title), French Open (round of 64), Wimbledon (round of 32)

Rybakina at the US Open

Career record: 14-6

Best result: final (2026)

Last year's result: round of 16

Record in finals: 0-0

Preparation: Toronto (final), Cincinnati (quarter-finals)

Road to the final: Frodin (6-3, 6-2), Bouzas Maneiro (6-2, 6-4), Starodubtseva (7-6, 6-3), (13) Osaka (6-1, 6-4), Qinwen Zheng (3-6, 6-1, 6-4), (4) Gauff (3-6, 6-4, 6-4)

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